Potential Effects of Changing Glaciers on Resources and Hazards in Afghanistan
This project is investigating mountain glaciers in Afghanistan and adjacent areas of Pakistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyzstan. The glaciers drain into or along the Afghan border and many rivers receive water from glacier melting. In northeastern Afghanistan, glaciers are an important component of the hydrology. Glaciers are major landscape features of the Hindu-Kush/Himalaya system, covering about 80,000 km2 in south and central Asia. Glaciers are major natural reservoirs of frozen water. Changing climate is resulting in increased melting of these glaciers and increasing discharge while reducing the volume of water remaining in glacier storage. Most glaciers in this region are retreating and/or down-wasting rapidly.
Afghanistan has approximately 3,000 glaciers. The study will determine the number, location, size (area, length, etc.), and health of these glaciers, as well as determine how they have changed during the past few decades in response to changing climate. Resulting information will then be used to estimate the importance of these glaciers to Afghanistan’s national water budget. Glaciers are a major water resource and provide a regulating influence on the annual and long-term cycle of stream flow. When dry, sunny, drought conditions prevail, melting of glaciers accelerates and partially compensates for the deficit of rainfall and snowmelt. During wet years, cloudy skies reduce glacier melting. Thus, fluctuations in stream discharge are smoothed, a crucial fact aiding agriculture and other uses in some valleys. Some glaciers, especially those with debris-cover, can also store large amounts of meltwater. When this happens a potential exists for catastrophic release. The resulting glacier lake outburst floods (jökulhlaups) can be devastating to people and infrastructure downstream. Lakes located on and adjacent to Afghan glaciers will be mapped and their potential role in outburst flooding evaluated.
A variety of temporal/spatial resolution remotely sensed data sets are being used to investigate these glaciers. These include ASTER, Landsat, aerial photography, Corona, MODIS and AVHRR imagery. All will be used to assess changes in glacial extent and adjacent permanent snow pack that may impact Afghan water resources. Analytical tools that are being used include computer classification schemes that focus on the complexities of debris-covered glaciers, glacier lakes with large concentrations of suspended sediment, and “Neural Network” analysis.
Anticipated products include:
- Training Afghan scientists in glaciology and glacial geology;
- A comprehensive digital inventory of glaciers in Afghanistan and areas draining into Afghanistan;
- An assessment of glacier-related hazards due to glacier lake outburst flooding; and
- An assessment of glacial meltwater resources in Afghanistan, specifically focused on contributions to urban development, agriculture, and hydropower development.
Specific tasks include:
- Snow and ice mapping (including debris-covered glaciers) and surface water mapping using multispectral satellite imagery (ASTER and Landsat ETM+);
- Analysis of glacier changes by use of frequent satellite imaging and comparisons to older sources of relevant data);
- Assessment of glacier-related flood hazards;
- Training and field deployment of an Afghan student/s to conduct glaciology/glacier hydrology studies; and
- Collaborations in various applied studies, including assessment of glacier impacts on potential agricultural production and hydropower generation and urban development.
More detail is provided in the attached Powerpoint presentation.
